Think tank-States dispute over major projects plan

A think tank has criticised plans to change how the States of Guernsey deals with big building projects - although the government has disputed the analysis.

The Policy and Resources Committee (P&R) published its plans for the major capital portfolio on 24 March, with politicians set to debate it at the next States' meeting on 22 April.

Guernsey Politics & Economic Group LBG (GPEG) said the P&R report was "a tedious read, full of generalisations rather than hard specifics", which did "not recognise funding constraints".

P&R said the GPEG report had "incorrect assumptions and [was] littered with factual errors". The BBC has approached GPEG for further comment.

The group said it was a not-for-profit, apolitical organisation, which provided independent research, analysis, and advocacy on the island's economic growth strategy, and social policy.

It would be better if the report identified total project costs, showed sources of funding more clearly and "identified the amounts for which funding is required", GPEG said.

In its report, P&R put forward 26 projects as part of its "pipeline" for future capital schemes.

The think tank said those listed were shown as totalling £467m, but said the true cost of those projects was £490m - when taking into consideration funding of £23.7m from Guernsey Insurance Fund, Seized Asset Fund, the Dairy, and the Marina Gates.

It said "it makes no sense not to consider affordability until the end of the process", as this would "result in time being wasted working up expensive proposals which cannot be funded".

Commenting on the P&R report, the think tank said: "One thing is certain – overspending and inflation will occur despite all best efforts.

"These projects should be prioritised based on necessity and their return, financial or social, on investment.

"The only way of funding this amount of money is by way of loans or the sale of investments and the island simply cannot afford all of these projects."

The think tank said it feared P&R's Medium Term Financial Plan would be "a plan to increase borrowing and sell investments on a serious scale".

President of the Policy & Resources Committee, Deputy Lindsay de Sausmarez, said: "The report GPEG has published on the Major Projects Portfolio policy letter is based on a raft of incorrect assumptions and littered with factual errors, so - while we always welcome comment on and scrutiny of our policy letters - in this case we do need to caution that the report's analysis is deeply flawed.

"It's a frustrating situation, because accurate independent analysis would have added value to the debate - but due to the lack of basic fact checking we now need to circulate a comprehensive explanation of the errors and inaccuracies to States members so that the debate can be grounded in an accurate understanding of the policy letter."

She said: "I'd like to use this opportunity to encourage GPEG to engage with us on future reports.

"We are always open to conversations and happy to show our workings, and it would be a far better outcome for everyone if their independent analysis is more accurate in future."

The BBC has approached GPEG for further comment.

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