London first-choice school offers lag behind average

Just over 88% of children in London were offered their first choice of primary school this year, slightly up on last year but below the national average, according to data by London's Councils.

The lowest rate was in the City of London, where 73.91% of families secured their first preference, followed by Hammersmith and Fulham (74.62%).

The figures, published on Thursday, also show that primary school applications in the capital fell 3.5% to 80,658.

Pupil numbers in London are expected to drop by around 87 primary school classes over the next four years. Antonia Jennings, chief executive of Centre for London, said this should "not be mistaken for a reduction in pressure on our schools".

By comparison, separate analysis by the Press Association (PA) showed that an average of 91.2% of parents across 95 councils secured their first choice for 2026.

According to this research, families in Cumberland were most likely to get their first-choice school, where the figure was 99.6%.

The analysis is based on figures provided to PA by 95 of the 153 councils in England as of 17:30 BST on Primary School Offer Day.

Among the lowest rates of first‑choice primary school offers in London were:

• City of London: 73.91%
• Hammersmith and Fulham: 74.62%
• Kensington and Chelsea: 75.43%
• Wandsworth: 78.49%
• Islington: 79.38%

Application numbers are affected by several factors, including London's falling birth rate and the severe shortage of affordable housing prompting families to leave the capital.

Analysis by London Councils forecasts a decrease of 2.5% - about 2,775 places - in reception pupil numbers in London over the next four years.

Schools are funded on a per-pupil basis, meaning falling numbers of students are a major concern, as significant declines are often associated with school closures.

"Falling enrolment means less funding for schools. Ninety schools have closed or merged in the past five years," Jennings added.

The total number of children under 16 in England is expected to fall by 6% over the next decade.

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the school leaders' union NAHT, said there was concern that this year's overall offer figures "may mask quite big regional variations".

"Many primary schools are seeing falling pupil numbers, for example in cities like London, where primary-age families are moving away.

"But in some schools, competition for places will still be very high, for example in areas with large amounts of new house building," he said.

"This regional volatility in populations means that unfortunately many families are still at the mercy of a postcode lottery when it comes to getting their first choice of school place."

The Department for Education is due to publish full data for Primary School National Offer Day in June.

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