Rumen Radev looks set to win Bulgarian Parliamentary election

Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria party looks set to win Sunday's Bulgarian Parliamentary election - the eighth general election in five years.

Exit polls put his Progressive Bulgaria on 37%, more than double the score of the closest runner-up, former prime minister Boiko Borisov's GERB on 16%.

Three or four other parties look set to cross the 4% threshold and enter Parliament.

The election was called after the previous government tried to push through a controversial budget last December, prompting mass demonstrations which Radev, as president, supported.

"People rejected the self-satisfaction and arrogance of old parties and did not fall prey to lies and manipulation. I thank them for their trust," Radev said, in his victory speech.

He promised to build "a strong Bulgaria in a strong Europe".

"What Europe needs right now is critical thinking, pragmatic actions and good results, especially to build a new security architecture and … recover its industrial power and competitiveness. That will be the main contribution of Bulgaria to its European mission," he said.

Radev, 62, is seen as a pragmatic, somewhat pro-Russian leader, who has criticised EU sanctions, and called for constructive dialogue with the Kremlin.

He opposes Bulgarian military support for Ukraine.

He fought this election largely on domestic policies, promising to combat corruption, and restore stable government after years of weak and easily-toppled coalitions.

He stepped down after nine years as president in January to form his new movement.

A former Mig-29 fighter pilot and commander-in-chief of the Bulgarian Air Force, his victory is impressive by Bulgarian standards, but does not give Progressive Bulgaria a strong enough mandate to govern alone.

In his first speech on Sunday evening, Radev said he is looking for coalition partners.

Bulgaria is an important supplier of ammunition and explosives to Ukraine, through third countries, especially neighbouring Romania.

The war has given a boost to an arms industry which has struggled since the Soviet era.

Since 2022, Radev has frequently spoken out against the sale of the Bulgarian stockpile of Soviet era weapons to Ukraine, on the grounds that they prolong a war Ukraine cannot win - a similar argument to that made by outgoing Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban.

The VMZ factory in Sopot, two hours drive east of the Bulgarian capital Sofia, produces explosives and NATO-grade 155 mm artillery shells.

In October 2025, the German arms company Rheinmetall announced a €1bn joint venture with VMZ, to produce up to 100,000 155mm shells a year.

A separate gunpowder factory will also be built in Sopot. Rheinmetall will have a 51% share in the company.

Production will be part of efforts across Europe to scale up military production.

While he opposes military supplies to Ukraine, Radev took credit for inviting the CEO of Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger to Bulgaria in March 2025.

"Bulgaria is becoming part of the European defence ecosystem," Radev said, on a visit to the Rheinmetall headquarters in Unterluss, Germany, in August 2025.

His position, as head of government, seems likely to be similar to that of Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico - critical of EU support, but not imposing a veto on the manufacture of arms by private companies for Ukraine.