Yaushe duniya za ta fuskanci sauyin yanayi na 'Super El Niño'?
Asalin hoton, Reuters
- Marubuci, Catherine Heathwood
- Sanya sunan wanda ya rubuta labari, BBC World Service
- Lokacin karatu: Minti 5
Watakila a kusan nan ka ga labarin 'Super' ko 'Godzilla' El Niño da za mu dosa nan gaba a wannan shekarar.
Bikin El Niño a mafi yawan lokuta yana ƙara ta'azzara yanayin zafin duniya, kazalika ya dumama yanayin yankunan da suke kusa, sannan ya janyo wasu wuraren su bushe. Dan haka magana a kan irin wannan yanayi da ake sa ran zai yi ƙamari dole ta ja hankula.
Wani masanin kimiyyar yanayi da ya tattauna da BBC ya ce dole a ɗauki matakan kariya kan wannan yanayi saboda rashin tabbacin da ake da shi na yadda zai kasance, bugu da ƙari da rashin tabbacin yadda yanayi zai shafi zubin yanayin zafi da kuma sauran yanayi.
Dr Kimberley Reid, kwararriya a fannin yanayi a jami'ar Melbourne a Australia, ta yi bayani kan ma'anar "Godzilla El Niño".
"Na ji masu hasashen yanayi a Australia na cewa manoma na kiraye-kiraye, domin sun damu da yanayin fari da za su tsintar kansu ciki, kuma lamarin zai shafi abubuwan da suke kiwo," kamar yadda ta shaida wa BBC.
"Yanayi ne na zafi sosai da zai shafi tekun Pacific ya kuma dami duniya baki ɗaya," a cewarta.
Me ake nufi da El Niño?
El Niño da takwaransa La Niño yanayi ne guda biyu masu kawo sauyi a yanayin duniya wanda ake kira da El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Ba dole ba ne su saɓa da juna, kuma ana gane su faru ne lokacin da sauyawar sama tekun Pacific a wurare masu zafi da ke gabashi da kuma tsakiyar tekun. Yayin da yanayin El Nino ya faru sai saman ruwan teku ya yi zafi, yayin kuma La Nina saman tekun sanyi yake yi.
Irin wannan yanayi na faruwa ne a wannan yankuna tsakanin shekara biyu zuwa bakwai kuma baya wuce watanni tara zuwa 12, ko da yake a wasu lokutan yakan zarce haka. La Nino ya kan mamaye wurare masu girma sosai tun daga tsakiyar shekarar 2024, sai dai yanzu yanayin ya zo ƙarshe. Wanda hakan ke nuna yanayi a tekun Pacific ya dawo yadda yake babu wani sauyi. - Babu El Nino haka ma La Nina.
Asalin hoton, Sonu Mehta/Hindustan Times via Getty Images
Mafi yawan yanayin El Nino da ya fi tasiri shi ne wanda ake samu a wuraren da ke kusa da gaɓar tekun Pacific da suka saba samun zafi.
Ƙasashen da suke yammacin Pacific irinsu Australia da Indonesia da kuma Philippines sukan zama a bushe sama da yadda suka saba kafin yanayin. Kuma fari da wutar daji wasu bala'ai ne da aka fi sabu a yankin a irin yanayin.
A ɗaya ɓangaren Pacific ɗin ƙasashen da ke Kudancin Amurka dakamt Peru da Ecuador su kuma sun fi samun yanayin ruwa da har yake kaiwa da ambaliyar ruwa.
Amma yanayin El Nino ya fi samar da sauyi, kuma yana raunata yanayi a yankuna irin na India da kuma yanayi saukar sauyi da anara a kudu maso yammacin Amurka.
Super El Niño?
A ranar 9 ga watan Afrilu, Cibiyar hasashen yanayi ta Amurka ta ce akwai yiwuwar samun yanayin El Nino da ya kai kashi 61 tsakanin watan Mayu da watan Yuli, kuma zai kai har zuwa ƙarshen shekarar 2026.
Dr Tim Stockdale daga cibiyar hasashen yanayi ta Turai, ta ce yanayin da ake kira Super El Nino sabo ne a wajen shi.
"Mutane ne suka zo da shi, kuma ina ganin abin da suke nufi shi ne El Nino da yake ɗaukar dogon lokaci bai tafi ba, kamar yadda muka gani a 1997-98 da kuma 2015-16, inda ga yanayin tekun Pacific ya kai matuƙar da bata taɓa kaiwa ba," kamar yadda ya shaida wa BBC.
Asalin hoton, NurPhoto/Corbis via Getty Images
Reid, daga jami'ar Melbourne, tace tayin lokacin da El Nino yake auka maya nufin tsayin tasirin da zai yi kenan a ko ina.
Wurare kamar Amurka da suke kusa da ruwan teku mai zafi a Pacific - abin sai ya fi tasiri a kansu, a cewarta.
Amma wurare irin Australia da Asia da Afrika hakan bai fiye tasiri ba gare su.
Reid ta ce yana da kyau a riƙa fuskantar akwai abubuwan da suke yiwa yanayi tasiri a kowanne yankin na duniya. " In ka tsaya kan El Nino ba za ka samu kan bayanin ba baki ɗaya,".
Asalin hoton, MARK RALSTON/AFP via Getty Images
Babu tabbas
A 2017, hasashen da aka yi da fari ya nuna El Nino za a samu, sai dai yanayi ya sauya daga ƙarshe La Nina ne kuma ya faru.
Reid ta ce "yanayin hasashe ma yana sauyawa a wasu lokuta ba da yawa ba, wanda hakan ya nuna" ko masu hasashe ba su da kwarin gwiwa kan yanayin... baya nufin duk abin da aka yi hasashe ya faru".
"Tarihi ya sha yi mana gargaɗin mu kiyayi kan sauyin yanayi a watan Maris da Afrilu," in ji ta
Ta ba da shawarar yanayi irin wanda ake kira 'Godzilla El Niño' za su fi daukar hankali sama da El Nino - kuma ga shi za su haifar da rashin tabbas a bana - kuma sai mun jira zuwa watannin Mayu ko Yuni kafin a mayar da hankali kan hasashen sauyin yanayi.
