Zaɓen Amurka na 2020: Waye a kan gaba - Trump ko Biden?

Karanta rubutu kawai domin rage cin data
Promo image showing Joe Biden and Donald Trump
    • Marubuci, Daga Tawagar Ta Visual Da Data Journalism
    • Sanya sunan wanda ya rubuta labari, BBC News

A ranar 3 ga watan Nuwamba Amurkawa za su yanke hukuncin ko Shugaba Donald Trump zai ci gaba da zama a Fadar White House a karin wasu shekaru huɗun nan gaba.

Shugaba Trump na Republican zai fuskanci Joe Biden wanda Jam'iyyar Democrats ta tsayar. Mista Biden ya yi fice ne a matsayin mataimakin tsohon Shugaba Barack Obama, ko da yake tun shekarun 1970 yake siyasa a Amurka.

Yayin da zaɓe ke sake karatowa, kamfanonin da ke tattara ƙuri'un jin ra'ayi za su yi kokarin jan hankulan mutane ta hanyar tambayarsu wane ne ɗan takararsu.

Za a ci gaba da sa ido a kan irin waɗannan ƙuri'u da ƙoƙarin fito da ra'ayoyin mutane kan hasashensu kan wanda zai lashe zaɓen.

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Wane yanayi 'yan takarar shugabancin ke ciki a ƙasar?

Ƙuri'ar jin ra'ayi na kasa na da muhimmanci wurin sanin yadda ɗan takara ya yi fice, amma ba wai lallai hakan ya kasance hanyar iya hasashe ko sanin yadda sakamakon zabe zai kasance ba.

A 2016, misali, Hillary Clinton ke kan gaba a irin wannan ƙuri'a domin tana da ƙuri'u kusan miliyan uku sama da Donald Trump, sai dai duk da hakan ta yi rashin nasara - saboda Amurka na amfani da tsarin Electoral College wato kwamitocin masu zaben shugaban kasa, don haka yawan kuri'a ba ita ce nasarar zabe a kasar ba.

Da wannan a bangare guda, Joe Biden shi ke gaban Donald Trump a kuri'un jin ra'ayin 'yan kasa a kusan wannan shekarar. Ko a makonnin baya-bayan nan yana gaban shugaban da kashi 50 cikin 100, a wasu lokutan bambancin yana kai wa da maki 10.

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Waye kan gaba a zaɓukan ƙasa?

YAN DEMOCRAT

BIDEN

52%

YAN REPUBLICAN

TRUMP

44%

Matsakaicin kudurin jefa ƙuri'a bisa kuri'ar mutum

Kwanan wata
BIDEN
TRUMP
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30 days until Ranar Zaɓe

Ƙuri'ar BBC ta jin ra'ayin jama'a ta duba kuri'ar mutane a kwanaki 14 da suka gaba da kuma ƙirƙirar abin da ke jan hankali ta hanyar amfani da wani tsari, wato auna darajar tsakiya a cikin lambobi.

Presentational white space

Idan aka ba da misali, a 2016 kuri'un sun kusan zuwa guda saboda kaso kalilan ne ya raba Mista Trump da abokiyar hamayyarsa a lokacin Hillary Clinton, yayin da zabe ka sake karatowa.

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Wacce jihar ce za ta yanke hukunci kan zaben?

Kamar yadda Misis Clinton ya gano a 2016, adadin kuri'un da za ka samu a lokacin zabe bai kai muhimmanci yankunan da za ka lashe ba.

Galibin Jihohi na zabe ta hanya iri guda, ma'ana akwai damamaki da dan takara ke da ita a jihohi na lashe zabe. Wadanan su ne wuraren da ake lashe zabe ko rashin nasara sannan su ake kira filin daga ko mu ce jihohin da aka fi fafatawa.

Amurka zabe
Presentational white space

Tsarin kwamitocin zabe da Amurka ke amfani dashi a zaben shugaban kasa, kowacce jiha ana ware mata adadin kuri'unta kan yawan al'ummarta. Kwamitocin zabe 538 ake rige-rigen samun nasara, don hakan dole dan takara ya lashe 270.

Kamar yadda taswirar sama ke nunawa, jihohin da ake bayyanawa da filin daga, kuri'unsu na zabe a kwamiti ya fi yawa, don haka dan takara kan bata lokaci a wadanan jihohi waje gangamin neman nasara.

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Wa ke kan gaba a jihohin da aka fi fafatawa?

A halin yanzu, kuri'un jin ra'ayi a jihohin da aka fi fafatawa sun nuna tauraron Joe Biden na haskawa, sai dai akwai sauran tafiya nan gaba kuma abubuwa na iya sauyawa cikin hanzari, musamman idan wanda ya shafi Donald Trump ne.

Kuri'un sun nuna cewa Mista Biden na ke kan gaba sosai a Michigan da Pennsylvania da Wisconsin - jihohi uku da abokin hamayyarsa na Republican ya lashe da kasa da kashi guda a 2016.

Matsakaiciyar ƙuri'ar jin ra'ayin jam'a ta baya-bayan nan kan jihohin da aka fi fafatwa

Je kasan teburin don ganin karin bayani
Latsa rukunan da ke sama don tsara jerin da ke teburin ta hanyar farawa daga kasa ko sama
Arizona 47.9% 47.0% Trump + 3.6%
Florida 47.9% 47.0% Trump + 1.2%
Georgia 47.2% 48.2% Trump + 5.2%
Iowa 45.6% 47.6% Trump + 9.5%
Michigan 50.0% 45.8% Trump + 0.2%
Minnesota 48.0% 43.7% Clinton + 1.5%
Nevada 48.7% 46.3% Clinton + 2.4%
New Hamshire 53.4% 42.4% Clinton + 0.4%
North Carolina 47.6% 47.8% Trump + 3.7%
Ohio 46.3% 47.3% Trump + 8.2%
Pennsylvania 48.7% 47.5% Trump + 0.7%
Texas 46.5% 47.8% Trump + 9.1%
Virgina 51.7% 40.3% Clinton + 5.4%
Wisconsin 51.0% 44.3% Trump + 0.8%

Sabunta na'urarku don ganin cikakken bayanin

Bayanai: US Census Lokaci na baya-bayan nan da aka sabunta alkaluma 03/11

Presentational white space

Sai dai jihohin da Mista Trump ya lashe sosai a 2016 ne abin da tawagar yankin neman zabensa za su fi nuna damuwa a kai. A jihohin Iowa da Ohio da Texas ya yi nasara da kashi 8 zuwa 10 cikin 100 a wancan lokacin, amma yanzu kusan kai da kai suke tafiya da Mista Biden.

Alkaluman wadanan kuri'u na iya taimakawa wajen bayyana matsayinsa na maye gurbin manajan kamfe dinsa a watan Yuli da yawan ambatar batun ''labaran boge''.

Kasuwar caca, har yanzu dai basu fida rai kan Mista Trump ba zuwa yanzu. Sabbin hasashensu a yanzu na bashi nasara da kashi 1 cikin 3 a zaben watan Nuwamba.

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Coronavirus ta yi tasiri ga Trump?

Annobar korona ce ta mamaye kafofin yada labarai a Amurka tun bullarta a farkon wannan shekarar, sannan yadda shugaba Trump ke tunkarar annobar ya yi ta haddasa ce-ce-ku-ce har a jam'iyyu.

Nuna goyon baya kan matakan da yake dauka ya ja hankali a tsakiyar watan Maris lokacin da ya kaddamar da dokar ta baci da ware wa jihohi dala biliyan 50 don hana yaduwar cutar.

A wannan lokaci kashi 55 cikin 100 na Amurkawa sun yi na'am da matakinsa, a cewar bayanan Ipos, kamfanin da ke kan gaba wajen shirya kuri'ar jin ra'ayi.

Amma duk wani goyon-baya daga Democrats ya gushe bayan nan, yayinda Republican ke cigaba da nuna goyon baya ga shugabansu.

Zaben Amurka
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Bayanan baya-baya nan, ko da yake, sun nuna cewa ko magoya bayansa sun soma diga ayar tamabaya kan matakansa yayin da jihohi a kudu da yammacin kasar ke fama da sake yaduwar cutar.

Magoya bayan Republican sun ragu da kashi 78% a farkon watan Yuli.

Wannan na iya bayyana dalilan da suka sa ya rage azarbabi 'yan kwanakin nan akan cutar korona, tare da gargadin cewa yanayin na iya ''rincabewa kafin daga bisa a samu sauki''.

Ya kuma sanya takunkumi a karon farko kwana nan, da kira ga Amurkawa su sanya nasu, inda yake cewa ''Za su yi tasiri'' da nuna ''masu biyaya ne''.

Wani bincike da kwararru a Jami'ar Washington suka wallafa ya nuna cewa adadin mamata na iya zarce dubu 250 kafin lokacin zabe.

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Ana iya dogaro da ƙuri'u?

Abu ne mai sauki a yi watsi da kuri'u ta hanyar cewa sun yi kuskure a 2016 sannan shugaba Trump ya sha aikata hakan. Amma hakan ba gaskiya ba ne.

Kuri'un jin ra'ayi da dama na nuna Hillary Clinton a kan gaba da dan wani kaso, amma hakan ba yana nufin sun yi rashin gaskiya ba, tun da ta yi nasara a zabe kan abokin hamayarta da miliyan Uku.

Pollsters sun fuskanci 'yan matsaloli a 2016 - gazawa wajen bayyana masu zabe ba tare da amfani da kwamiti ba - ma'ana damar da Mista Trump ke da ita a jihohin da aka fi fafatawa, bai fito ba har sai da lokaci ya kure. Akasari irin wadanan kamfanonin sun gyara wannan kuskuren.

Sai dai a wannan shekara rashin tabbas din ya fi yawa saboda annobar korona da tasirin da ta yi ga tattalin arziki da kuma yadda mutane za su yi zabe a Nuwamba, don haka idan aka karanta ko amfani da kowanne kuri'a dole ayi takatsan-tsan, musamman kan ranar zabe.