Monthly Outlook

Changeable weather will continue into the first half of the week, with some chillier days.

The first half of April should become drier and warmer as high pressure becomes more dominant. However, there are signs of a possible cooler turn later in April.

Milder, changeable, drier later

Saturday will be chilly and showery, with stiff and gusty north-westerly winds. There will be risks of hail and thunder locally and showers could be wintry in places, especially over northern high ground.

Sunday brings a band of rain, heavy at times, moving south-east across the UK, with winds increasing and scattered showers following behind, later Sunday and into Monday. Some will turn wintry once more, chiefly in Scotland.

Tuesday could see a high pressure ridge crossing with just a few showers dotted around, but on Wednesday a weakening band of frontal rain may slowly move south-eastwards.

The second half of the week is uncertain but most probably high pressure is going to build near or across the UK. Its exact position will have a large bearing on the resulting details but there could be a lot of dry weather, and some milder air flows if it drifts east of the UK as currently expected.

If it shifts further east or southwards, there would still be mild conditions, but this could allow greater chances of frontal rain arriving later in the week, especially in northern and western areas.

Warm and dry

The most probable scenario for this period is a blocked pattern, with slow-moving high pressure most likely to be near or east of the UK, with low pressure building through the central Atlantic.

In between these two features there will be broadly south-east to south-westerly flows, so it should be quite warm, with temperatures widely above the April average.

This should also mean a lot of dry weather, with below-normal precipitation amounts. Some calm nights could lead to overnight and early-morning fog patches, and even a slight frost in susceptible spots despite the daytime warmth.

There is a chance that Atlantic frontal systems will try to approach the UK, so it might not be completely dry. Any rain is most likely to affect far north-western areas of the UK, but if high pressure were to be weaker or positioned further east than expected, then rain could spread further east and southwards across the UK.

Potentially turning cooler

High pressure should remain near or over the UK through the middle of April, which ought to mean widely drier-than-normal weather for a while longer. However, conditions are still going to be dependent on exactly where this sets up.

Initially, this pattern should ensure above average temperatures, although with further chances of some chilly and foggy nights in places.

After mid-month, the strongest high pressure anomalies could eventually become positioned at higher latitudes, most likely to the north or north-west of the UK, towards Iceland and Greenland. As a result, there would be a chance of some chillier flows from the northerly quarter.

There is no sign of a notably cold outbreak occurring, but temperatures could be closer to seasonal values. This shift in the pattern could allow low pressure systems to develop closer to the UK, eventually leading to chances of wetter weather.

In Tuesday's update we will see if the forecast still favours high pressure development and warmer, drier weather during the first half of April.