Monthly Outlook

A drier period should develop next week as high pressure builds, and it should turn warmer for a few days.

Through early May, drier than normal conditions should continue for many areas, particularly the northern UK. Southern regions will have more of a chance of outbreaks of rain developing. It will become cooler with chances of overnight frost and fog patches.

Changeable at first then becoming drier

During the weekend and start of next week, the weather will turn cooler. Saturday will be showery, mainly in northern and western regions of the UK, with the south and east only having isolated showers in between spells of sunshine.

High pressure will build on Sunday, leading to a dry day in many areas with just a few isolated showers.

A more widespread scattering of showers could develop on Monday while brisk north-easterly winds develop as high pressure becomes centred north of Scotland. Eastern coastal areas could feel rather chilly. Western Scotland, Northern Ireland and south-west England should have the driest and sunniest weather.

Tuesday should stay breezy, especially towards England's south coast, where the highest chance of showers will be, but most areas will be dry with some sunshine.

High pressure may settle over the UK again around midweek and into the second half of the week, delivering mostly dry weather with lighter winds. Daytime temperatures should rise near or above the April average but some chilly nights are possible in places, with a risk of overnight and early morning fog patches and perhaps a touch of frost in susceptible spots.

There is a chance that Atlantic low pressure will try to push in against this high pressure, with the south-west in particular seeing a slight chance of a little showery rain, but most areas should remain dry.

Drier than normal but turning cooler

The position of high pressure is uncertain during the end of April and into early May. It is likely to settle most strongly at higher latitudes, from Greenland and Iceland and north of the UK towards Scandinavia but perhaps also extending into the UK itself.

This blocked pattern should hinder the approach of Atlantic frontal systems, so there should be a lot of dry weather with precipitation amounts below average. If any rain moves in it would be most likely to affect south-western areas, due to low pressure trying to edge in from the south and south-west.

A cooler air mass looks likely to settle across the UK for a few days, with chilly nights and daytime temperatures near to slightly below normal. With some calm conditions, there will be a continuing risk of overnight fog patches and even frost in places.

Fairly dry, especially in the north, but cool

The position of high pressure remains key to weather conditions during the first half of May. A rather blocked pattern is most likely to continue for a while, with high pressure anomalies most likely to be strongest to the north and north-east of the UK. As such, precipitation amounts should be near to below average.

With this kind of set-up, northern areas of the UK are likely to be drier but cooler than southern regions, where low pressure and frontal systems might edge in at times from the south or south-west. Overnight fog patches remain possible, with further risks of frost, mainly in the north.

Uncertainty is high, but there will be a chance of some wetter conditions developing later in the period.

In Tuesday's update, we will continue to track the movements of the expected high pressure and its impacts on the UK's weather patterns.