Wadamada Khaliijka ma u baahan yihiin istiraatijiyad cusub oo difaaca ah?

Dagaalka ka socda bariga dhexe ee ayaa su'aalo culus ka keenay waxtarka nidaamka difaaca ee dalalka Gacanka, gaar ahaan marka la eego jiritaanka heshiisyada difaaca ee lala galay awoodaha waaweyn iyo martigelinta saldhigyo militari ajnabi ah gudaha dalalkan.

Sida muuqata, habeyntan difaac ma aysan ku filnayn in lagu xakameeyo xiisadaha ama si buuxda loo ilaaliyo dalalka Gacanka, sidaas darteed su'aalo ayaa ka taagan nooca iskaashiga difaaca iyo baaxadda mustaqbalka ee arrintan.

Inkastoo dhowr dal oo Gacanka ah ay leeyihiin heshiisyo amni oo lala galay Mareykanka iyo la-hawlgalayaasha Galbeedka, ku-tiirsanaanta buuxda ee iskaashiyadan xilliyada dhibaatooyinka inta lagu jiro dagaalka ayaa qasbay saraakiisha Gacanka inay dalbadaan dib-u-eegis dhameystiran oo ku saabsan doorashooyinka iyo khiyaarada difaaca ee u furan.

Waxaa ka mid ah afhayeenka Wasaaradda Arrimaha Dibadda ee Qatar, Majid Al-Ansari, oo ku sheegay shir jaraa'id dhowaan in dalalka Gacanka ay u baahan yihiin inay dib u qiimeeyaan nidaamka amniga goboleed ee wadajirka ah iyadoo la eegayo dagaalka hadda socda.

Wuxuu sidoo kale cadeeyay in iskaashiga difaaca ee dalalka Gacanka uu caddeeyay waxtarkiisa dhinaca difaaca inta lagu jiro dagaalka. Wuxuu intaas ku daray in dalalka Gacanka ay u baahan yihiin mowqif mideysan oo heer isku-duwid goboleed ah si loola tacaalo hanjabaadaha hadda jira.

Majid Al-Ansari's statements suggest that although military agreements with allies have been defensively successful, relying solely on allies is insufficient, and that coordination among Gulf states must be strengthened to ensure a unified and effective response to any future threat.

This debate raises a fundamental question: will reliance on major powers remain an effective Gulf option in the long term, or could new defense partnerships emerge?

Hadallada Majid Al-Ansari waxay muujinayaan in inkastoo heshiisyada militari ee lala galay la-hawlgalayaasha ay dhinaca difaaca ku guuleysteen, ku-tiirsanaanta keliya ee saaxibadda aysan ku filnayn, isla markaana loo baahan yahay in la xoojiyo isku-duwidda dalalka Gacanka si loo hubiyo jawaab mideysan oo waxtar leh marka ay timaado hanjabaad kasta oo mustaqbalka ah.

Doodan waxay soo bandhigaysaa su'aal aasaasi ah: ma ku sii jiri doontaa ku-tiirsanaanta awoodaha waaweyn ikhtiyaar waxtar leh oo Gacanku qaato muddo dheer, mise iskaashiyo cusub oo difaac ayaa soo ifbixi kara?

Weriyaha Mareykanka ah ee Sebastian Rublin, oo ah khabiir ku takhasusay arrimaha difaaca, wuxuu aaminsan yahay in Mareykanka iyo Israel ay dagaal la galeen Iran, iyaga oo adeegsanaya saldhigyo Mareykan ah oo ku yaalla dalalka Gacanka, taas oo keentay jawaab milatari oo Iran ka timid oo ay ku beegsadeen dalalkaas."

Waraysi uu siiyay BBC News Arabic, Rublin wuxuu sheegay in dalalka Gacanku aysan gabi ahaanba ka madax banaaneyn mas'uuliyadda khilaafka. Wuxuu soo xigtay warbixino sheegaya in qaar ka mid ah dalalka "si aamusan" u dhiirrigeliyeen Mareykanka inuu weeraro Iran, iyagoo u arkay fursad ay ku daciifinayaan Iran maadaama loo arko khatar joogto ah.

"Dabcan, waxaa jiray dalal yar yar oo Gacanka ah sida Qatar iyo Bahrain oo aan dooneynin dagaalkan," ayuu intaas ku daray.

Dania Zafar, oo ah agaasimaha fulinta ee Gulf International Forum ee Washington, waxay aaminsan tahay in weerar Mareykan ah oo lagu qaado Iran uu saameyn taban ku yeelan doono amniga dalalka Gacanka siyaabo badan.

Waraysi ay siisay BBC News Arabic, Dania Zafar waxay sheegtay in "Iran ay ka labalabaysay inay si toos ah weerarto dalalka Gacanka ka hor weerarka Mareykanka, taasoo micnaheedu yahay in joogitaanka Mareykanka uu u shaqeeyo sidii wax ka hortag ah, maadaama Iran aysan isku dayin inay weerarto dal Gacanka ka mid ah muddadaas, taasoo muujineysa in ka hortaggu uu waxtar lahaa xilliga nabadda."

Hamad Al-Thunin, oo ah kaaliyaha borofisar ee Waaxda Cilmiga Siyaasadda ee Jaamacadda Kuwait, wuxuu aaminsan yahay in "dhibaatadu aysan ku jirin heshiisyada militari iyo waxyaabaha ka dhiman, balse ay ku jirto awoodda go'aan-qaadayaasha ee lagu maamulo xiriirka dalalka si xikmad iyo mas'uuliyad leh."

Aragtidiisa, "dhibaatada aasaasiga ah waa in Mareykanka uu dooratay inuu galo dagaalkan, iyadoo mudnaanta siisay yoolalka maamulka Ra'iisul Wasaaraha Israa'iil, Benjamin Netanyahu, iyada oo aan wax tixgelin ah la siin dalalka Gacanka."

Waraysi uu siiyay BBC Arabic, Al-Thunian wuxuu intaa ku daray in xiriirka dalalka Gacanka iyo Iran uu maray dhowr marxaladood oo xiisad ah, balse dalalkan badankood waxay doorbideen diblomaasiyadda si loo ilaaliyo amniga iyo xasilloonida.

Dad badan ayaa sidoo kale isweydiiyay sababta dalalka Gacanku aysan weli si militari uga jawaabin weerarrada Iran.

Dania Zafar waxay sheegtay in dalalka Gacanku ay si waxtar leh isu difaaceen weerarrada Iran. Waxay sheegtay in heerka ka hortagga gantaallada ee Qatar uu mararka qaarkood gaaray 100%.

Inkastoo dalalka Gacanku ay awoodaan inay si toos ah dagaal ugu galaan Iran, Dania Zafar waxay aaminsan tahay in weerar kasta uu la kulmi doono jawaab aad u xoogan oo ka timaadda Iran, taasoo halis gelinaysa kaabayaasha muhiimka ah iyo khasaare weyn keeni karta.

Al-Thunian wuxuu sheegay in difaacyada cirka ee Gacanku ay ka hortageen ku dhawaad 94 boqolkiiba gantaallada Iran, taasoo muujinaysa waxtarka maalgashiga difaaca.

Wuxuu aaminsan yahay in "ka gaabiska dalalka Gacanka inay jawaab bixiyaan ay sabab u tahay saddex arrimood: dagaalkeenu ma aha, annagu maa bilownay, wax dna ah ma noogu jirtaa. Tani waa muujin dulqaad istiraatiiji ah, ma aha awood la'aan."

Sebastian Rublin wuxuu aaminsan yahay in dagaalku uu muujiyay halista dalalka Gacanka kaga imaanaysa diyaaradaha aan duuliyaha lahayn ee Iran, kuwaas oo ay adag tahay in la daba-galo lana joojiyo. Wuxuu intaa ku daray in qiimahooda hoose (US$20,000–40,000) uu ka dhigo gantaallada qaali ah sida Patriot missiles ama THAAD kuwo aan dhaqaale ahaan macquul ahayn si looga hortago.

Rublin wuxuu sharaxay in ay jiraan warbixino ka yimid kormeerayaasha Ukraine ee Gulf Defense Monitoring oo muujinaya in mararka qaarkood tiro badan oo gantaallada Patriot ah la sii daayo si looga hortago hal weerar oo keli ah, maadaama loo baahan yahay in la ilaaliyo keydka haddii dagaalku sii dheeraado.

Mustaqbalka Difaaca Khaliijka iyo Tartanka Hubka

Dhinaca difaaca marka laga eego, Rublin wuxuu aaminsan yahay in la dagaalanka diyaaradaha aan duuliyaha lahayn uu u baahan yahay hubka ka-hortagga cirka ee qiimo jaban sida gantaallada APKWS ee leh hagitaan oo ay isticmaali karaan diyaaradaha dagaalka ama nidaamyada dhulka, iyo nidaamyada difaaca ee saldhigyada ku kala firdhisan meelaha juquraafi ahaan u nugul.

Marka laga hadlayo difaaca gantaallada, wuxuu aaminsan yahay in "loo baahan doono in la cusbooneysiiyo keydka gantaallada ka-hortagga, in lagu maalgashado lakabyo dheeraad ah oo nidaamyada difaaca ah, iyo in la geeyo dareemayaal badan, gaar ahaan kuwa diyaaradaha ah iyo laga yaabee sidoo kale kuwa dayax-gacmeedka ku saleysan.

Dania Zafar waxay rumeysan tahay in "dalalka Gacanka ay sii wadi doonaan iskaashiga ay la leeyihiin Washington. Waxaan aaminsan tahay in dhacdooyinkii dhowaan ka dib, aan ku dhow nahay tartan hub oo weyn oo gobolka ka dhaca.

Al-Thunian wuxuu aaminsan yahay in jihada mustaqbalka ee dalalka Gacanka ay ku jiri doonto xoojinta awoodaha iska-caabbinta iyada oo loo marayo isku-dubbaridka milatari ee Gacanka iyo horumarinta warshadaha difaaca gudaha, iyada oo lala kaashanayo dalalka bah-wadaagta ee caalami ah oo awood leh una diyaarsan.