Darussa uku da ya kamata Trump ya ɗauka daga tarihi kan yaƙin Iran

Tarihi na neman maimaita kansa dangane da yaƙin da Amurka da Isra'ila suke yi kan ƙasar Iran tun kimanin wata guda, inda masu fashin baƙi da masharhanta ke ƙokarin gane alƙiblar yaƙin ta hanyar komawa baya a nazarci wasu abubuwa da suka faru a tari. Abubuwan kuwa sun kasance guda uku:

Mashigar ruwa ta Suez

Tun bayan da ƴan ƙungiyar Houthi na Yemen suka ƙaddamar da hare-hare kan Isra'ila a ranar Juma'a - hari na farko tun bayan fara yaƙin Amurka da Isra'ila a kan Iran - wanda hakan ke nufin an samu ƙarin waɗanda suka shiga yaƙin.

Shigar Houthi cikin yaƙin ya sa fargaba ga duniya cewa tattalin arzikin ƙasar zai sake shiga wani yanayi kasancewar ƙungiyar tana da ƙarfin kai hare-hare ga jiragen ruwa a Tekun Maliya musamman mashigar ruwa ta Suez Canal.

Duk da cewa ƙungiyar ba za ta iya toshe hanyar da kaso 30 na zirga-zirgar jiragen dakon mai ke bi ba, da kuma kaso 15 na sufurin kayayyaki ba amma kuma za ta iya samar da tsaiko ga samun damar shigewa ta mashigar Suez. Hakan na nufin, al'amura za su ƙara ta'azzara bisa la'akari da yadda Iran ta rufe mashigar Hormuz.

Wannan ne ya sa masana suka yi duba ga tarihin abin da ya faru da mashigar ruwan ta Suez Canal shekaru 70 da suka wuce wanda yake da kwatankwacin irin na abin da ke faruwa a yau.

Lokacin da shugaban Misra, Gamal Abdel Nasser ya mayar da mashigar ruwan ta Suez Canal mallakin ƙasarsa a 1956, ya karɓe iko da ɗaya daga cikin hanyoyin sufurin mai a duniya. Faransa da Birtaniya da Isra'ila sun yi yunƙurin sake ƙwace iko da mashigar amma ba su yi nasara ba.

Ga shugaban Amurka, Donald Trump da firai ministan Isra'ila, Benjamin Netanyahu, tarihi ya yi nuni da wasu abubuwa masu alaƙa da hakan.

"Fiye da komai, al'amarin ya kawo ƙarshen ƙasancewar Birtaniya ƙasar da ta fi kowacce ƙarfi," in ji ɗan jaridar BBC, Jeremy Bowen. "Ita ce take da iko da yankin Gabas ta Tsakiyar tun bayan yaƙin duniya na ɗaya, kuma wannan ne mafarin kawo ƙarshen ikon nata."

Irin dabarun da Iran da ƴan ƙungiyar Houth ke amfani da su na taƙaita amfani da hanyar da tattalin arziƙin duniya ke gudana sun yi tunanii dangane da irin matakin da Gamael Abdel Nasser ya ɗauka.

A lokacin da rundunar ƙasashen Faransa da Birtaniya suka isa ɓangaren arewacin mashigar ruwan Suez ɗin, Nasser ya nutsar da jiragen ruwa, ya toshe mashigar ta hanyar katse Turai daga rijyoyinsu na mai da ke tekun fasha, kamar yadda Alfred McCoy wani masanin tarihi na Amurka ya sanar.

Shugaban Amurka na lokacin, Dwight D. Eisenhower wanda ya nuna damuwa da al'amarin wanda zai ƙara faɗaɗa yaƙin cacar baka da Tarayyar Turai - ya shiga cikin batun shi ma, sannan ya tilasta wa Birtaniya da Faransa su janye.

"Ya zuwa wannan lokacin....an sanya wa Birtaniya takunkumi a majalisar Dinkin Duniya, kuɗinta na gab da lalacewa, kimarta ta daula mai iko ta fara dusashewa sannan kasancewarta mai faɗa a ji a duniya na neman mutuwa," in McCoy.

Sai dai kamar yadda Bowen ya ce akwai banbancin kamanceceniya tsakanin rufe mashigar Suez da ta Hormuz a yau.

"Ba ina ƙoƙarin alaƙanta ƙarfin Amurka da na Birtaniya bayan yaƙin duniya na biyu ba. Sai dai abin da nake ƙoƙarin fitarwa shi ne dukkannin wasu ƙasashe masu ƙarfi kan samu tagomashi kuma kan faɗi. Sannan bisa la'akari da irin barazanar da Amurka ke fuskanta daga China - idan a nan gaba mutane suka fara tunanin faɗuwar Amurka to masu nazarin tarihi ka iya alaƙanta faɗuwar tata da yaƙin da ta shiga ba tare da tunanin abin da zai je ya zo ba.

Domin fahimtar illar hakan kuwa, akwai muhimmanci idan aka kalli ƙarin darussan da tarihi ke nunawa a shekaru 70 da suka shuɗe.

Matsalar mai a 1973

Ɗaya daga cikin misalai na fili ya faru ne shekaru 20 da suka shuɗe bayan rikicin rufe mashigar ruwan na Suez.

"A 1973 an yi yaƙi tsakanin Isra'ila da Misra da Syria wanda ake kira da yakin Yom Kippur. A lokacin Amurka ta bai wa Isra'ila makamai masu yawa," in Bowen.

"Bayan nan kuma ƙasashen Larabawa sun mayar da martani ta hanyar saka takunkumin da ya janyo farashin mai ya yi tashin gwauron zabbi sannan kuma ya janyo ƙarancin man a yammacin Turai."

Ministan mai na Saudiyya na lokacin, Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani ya fito fili ya yi magana a kan albarkatun ƙasa kamar mai a 1973, wanda hakan ya shafi kasuwar man ta duniya, Ya bayyana irin ikon da ƙasashen Larabawa ke da shi a kan mai da "makami na mai" wanda zai iya lalata tattalin arzikin duniya.

Takunkumin ya kwashe watanni biyar yana aiki amma kuma masana sun ce sakamakonsa ya daɗe yana taɓa duniya. Misali tashin farashi a Amurka da ƙasashen da ke dogaro ga mai a masana'antunsu - sannan kuma babban bankin Amurkar ya gaza shawo kan matsalar tsadar rayuwa.

Duk da cewa a yanzu haka dai za a iya cewa dogaro ga mai ba kamar na shekaru 50 da suka gabata ba ne kasancewar ƙasashe sun faɗada hanyoyin samun makamashi, to amma faruwar al'amarin ka iya zama izina ga shugaban Amurka, Donald Trump.

Yaƙin Iran da Iraq

Masana tarihi sun ce yaƙin Iran da Irai da ya mamaye shekarun 1980 ka iya zama darasi na kusa-kusa ta yadda za a fahimci yadda abokan Amurka ka iya kawo cikas ga tattalin arziƙin duniya.

A lokacin yaƙin, Iran da Iraqi duk sun yi ƙoƙarin rufe mashigar Hormuz a ƙoƙarinsu na jan hankalin manyan ƙasashen duniya ga rikicin.

Ya zuwa tsakiya zuwa ƙarshen shekarun 1980, hare-hare sun yi ƙamari da ta sanya Kuwait ta nemi ɗaukin ƙasashen duniya domin bai wa jiragenta damar wucewa ta mashigar ruwan. Amurka ta amince domin gudun ka da Rasha wadda babbar abokiyar gabarta ce a lokacin yaƙin cacar baka, ta mamaye ta.

An fara yi wa jiragen dakon mai rakiya a mashigar a wani shirin da ake kira da Operation Earnest Will, inda aka fara yi musu rakiyar a Yulin 1987 amma kuma hakan ya zamo wani abin kunya ga Amurka wanda ake yi wa kallon mai shiga tsakani - inda Iran ta kai hare-hare ga jiragen ruwan da ya kamata ta kare, a kan hanyarsu ta zuwa Kuwait.

Masana sun ce al'amarin ya yi nuni da irin ƙarancin ƙarfin Amurka wajen share nakiyoyin ruwa da Iran ta shimfiɗa a mashigar ta Hormuz wani abu da ya ci gaba da sanya tsoro a zukatan masu jirage.

Tarihi ya fitar da darussan ga waɗanda suke cikin yaƙin da ke faruwa a gabas ta Tsakiya kuma irin yadda suka tsaya suka fahimci darussan shi ne zai nuna irin alƙibla da kuma lokacin da duniya za ta ɗauka wajen fuskantar wahalhalu.