How 10 Premier League teams could still qualify for Europe

The chances of 11 Premier League teams being in Europe next season may have been ended by Liverpool's elimination from the Champions League this week - but it is still possible for 10 clubs to make it.

England still has four teams active - and is guaranteed to have a representative in the final of the Europa League.

Who wins trophies, and their league positions, will decide the final total.

Qualification for European competition has become pretty complicated in the past few seasons.

This has largely been caused by Uefa's new European Performance Spots (EPS).

These are the extra places in the Champions League given to the two leagues with the best overall record each season.

The Premier League has secured one of the two berths for 2026-27, while the second will go to either La Liga or the Bundesliga.

It means there will be at least eight English teams in Europe next season.

But what happens if an English team wins one of the European competitions?

Could there be six teams in the Champions League again? And how does the Premier League get to 10 in Europe?

The logic of the EPS is simple. But other factors complicate matters.

It has two pillars: it is applied after all other considerations about domestic and European cup winners; it always provides one additional place to the overall allocation.

So England was set to have seven teams in Europe before securing an EPS - but now will have at least eight.

As it stands - and subject to who wins the FA Cup - that now means this:

It could be a tight race for fifth place, which is currently held by Liverpool on 52 points. The Reds are three points behind Manchester United and Aston Villa, in third and fourth respectively.

But what if Liverpool faltered and are caught?

Just six points separate Arne Slot's side from 10th-placed Sunderland with six games to play.

Chelsea (48) sit in sixth followed by Brentford (47), Everton (47), Brighton (46), Sunderland (46) and Bournemouth (45).

Keep in mind the next few teams, too, as Fulham (44), Crystal Palace (42) and Newcastle (42) could all have an eye on the European places.

Arsenal are going to finish in the top four of the Premier League, so the Gunners winning the Champions League cannot impact the allocation.

The place reserved for the Champions League titleholders would pass to the league champions in qualifying with the best Uefa coefficient.

That is likely to be Rangers if they win the Scottish Premiership.

For the Premier League to get a sixth Champions League place via this route, Arsenal would need to finish outside the top four.

Arsenal meet Atletico Madrid in the semi-finals of the Champions League.

The first thing to remember is that the Europa League winners qualify for the Champions League.

Aston Villa will meet Nottingham Forest in the last four, so one Premier League team will make the final.

If Villa win the Europa League and finish in the top four, then nothing changes in terms of England's European spots. There would still be five teams in the Champions League, and eight in Europe.

The place in the Champions League reserved for the Europa League titleholders would pass to the team in qualifying with the best Uefa coefficient.

As it stands right now, that could be Club Brugge.

If Villa finish outside the top four, the Premier League will have six teams in the Champions League:

Villa's precise final position would decide the Premier League's total European allocation.

If they finish fifth, the EPS passes to the Premier League's sixth-placed team.

The Premier League would surrender a place in the Europa League. Overall, England would still have eight European places.

Why is a Europa League place given up? This is all about applying the EPS after all other factors.

So in this example, Aston Villa have earned a place in the Champions League but finished in a league position that qualifies them for the Europa League.

Uefa rules state that the berth in the lower competition has to be forfeited and passed to another league.

For instance, La Liga had no team in the first edition of the Conference League because Villarreal won a European competition and finished in seventh.

Let's say Villa finish fifth. The Premier League gives up the Europa League place.

Then you apply the EPS, which goes to sixth - the first team not in the Champions League.

The Conference League place drops to seventh.

If Villa finish sixth, then it is the Conference League place which is given up. After the EPS, eighth plays in the Europa League.

But could Villa winning the Europa League give England a ninth European spot? Only if they finish outside the domestic European places.

Right now that would be outside the top six - or the top seven if, say, Manchester City win the FA Cup.

As Villa are eight points ahead of seventh-placed Brentford, there is only a slim possibility this could happen.

For Forest, it's a very simple situation as they sit 16th in the Premier League on 33 points.

Forest are out of the FA Cup, so they cannot qualify for Europe domestically.

If Vitor Pereira leads Forest past Villa and on to Europa League glory there will be a sixth English team in the Champions League, and at least nine in Europe.

This would mirror what happened with Tottenham Hotspur last season.

Crystal Palace will play Shakhtar Donetsk in the Conference League semi-finals.

The Conference League winners qualify for the following season's Europa League.

And Palace - England's representatives - have only a small chance of qualifying for Europe domestically.

So, if the Eagles win the Conference League, it is likely they would take up an extra place in the Europa League as a titleholder.

That would mean the Premier League has at least nine clubs in Europe.

If Palace and Forest were both to win European trophies, that would guarantee 10 English teams in Europe.

Palace are only six points behind Chelsea in the final European position (pre-EPS), but they would have to outperform six other clubs too.

But, if the Eagles were to soar up to seventh place, this would open the door for eighth to get the place in the Conference League next season.

Why would this be? Well, remember that the EPS is applied last of all.

By finishing seventh, Palace would be in the first position which does not earn European football by league position. They would enter the Europa League as a ninth English team.

When the EPS is applied and bumps the league placings down, the Conference League spot jumps over Palace and goes to eighth.

What about if Manchester City win the FA Cup? The places drop down one. If Palace were to finish eighth then the same scenario applies, and the Conference League place goes to ninth.

As Arsenal will finish inside the top four, they cannot add an additional place by winning the Champions League.

It means that the maximum number for next season is 10:

At the start of every season, the maximum is an unlikely 11.

For it to happen, English teams need to win all three European competitions and finish outside the qualifying domestic league positions.

This will depend on who lifts the trophy at Wembley on 16 May.

Manchester City face Southampton and Chelsea take on Leeds in the semi-finals on the weekend of 25 April.

If City win it, the European places will drop down one.

So after the EPS, sixth and seventh will be in the Europa League and eighth in the Conference League.

If Chelsea lift the trophy, the Blues would need to finish inside the top seven for the Conference League place to transfer to eighth.

Should Southampton or Leeds win the competition, they would play in the Europa League and there would be no change for other teams.

With many teams now in contention for fifth, and a huge number of permutations about how far down the European places could go, it promises to be a fascinating battle.