We dey near World War Three or na fear full bodi?

Di US-Israel war wit Iran don reach more dan one month, and pipo don dey fear say di current conflict for di Middle East fit become somtin bigger dan wetin we dey see now.

Di war don affect more dan 12 kontris apart from Iran - including di UAE, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Azerbaijan, di occupied West Bank, Cyprus, Syria, Qatar and Lebanon.

Many pipo now begin to dey wonder weda dis current conflict fit move from di Middle East area to become proper world war.

Wen war fit become world war?

"Pipo bin dey tink say war na wen dem bin plan am well well, wey di pipo wey don dey go war sabi exactly wetin dem dey do," emeritus professor of international history for Oxford University for di UK, Margaret MacMillan, tell BBC Global Story podcast.

"In fact, if una check di war wey happun for di past...di first World War...di tin wey don scata evritin to finally start dat war, na accident, and how pipo bin dey misjudge dia opponent," Prof MacMillan explain.

"Make you tink about am like fight wey dey happun for schoolyard."

Na di assassination of di nephew of Austria-Hungary Emperor Franz Joseph, Archduke Franz Ferdinand wey bin trigger di chain of tins wey begin di World War One for 1914, MacMillan tok.

Within weeks, kontris wey be friends (alliances) now carry Europe enta conflict: Austria-Hungary move against Serbia, Germany support Austria, Russia prepare support for Serbia, France support Russia, wey Britain carry honour and strategy enta di war.

Wetin follow now become global catastrophe, she tok.

Joe Maiolo, wey be professor for international history for King's College London, don define wetin world war be, as war wey involve all di ogbonge powers for di world.

"For di First World War, dat fit be di European imperial powers. For di Second World War, e include United States, Japan and China," e tok di BBC.

Many pipo go describe di middle East tension today say na regional wahala. But di conditions ripe for dis wahala to spread now?

Inside one interview wit di BBC for February, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky tok say im believe Russia President Vladimir Putin don already begin WW3, wey di only answer to dat, na to apply military and economic pressure wey go force Moscow to step back.

"I believe say Putin don already start am. Di question na how much territory im go fit seize and how to stop am... Russia wan impose on di world different way of life and change di lives pipo don choose for demsefs," e tok.

So wetin be di risk say WW3 fit happun?

"I bin tink di kontri wey fit pour petrol inside dis fight na Iran, or friends (allies) of Iran, such as di Houthis for Yemen," MacMillan tok.

Iran potential actions - like how dem dey target shipping routes or how dem close di Strait of Hormuz - fit affect di world, energy supplies and now involve major powers, according to MacMillan.

Di way US dey involved also don dey raise di chance; oda kontris, even if dem no directly dey engaged, dey affected economically or strategically, she add.

Anoda risk also dey - conflict for one region fit create opportunities elsewhere.

China, for example, fit find strategy as di West don dey distracted now, as opportunity to make move on Taiwan, or Russia fit pour more petrol for dia war wit Ukraine while global attention dey elsewhere.

"E always dey possible say conflict fit spread outside one region, sake of oda pipo outside di region go see opportunity for di conflict, sake of e dey engage pipo wey fit stop dem from doing wetin dem want," MacMillan tok.

Prof Maiolo believe say di conflict go remain regional, and draw in di Gulf Cooperation Council kontris, wey include Saudi Arabia. But im no dey see China and Russia for dis war.

"Dis idea say somtin happun for di world and China go take advantage to pounce on Taiwan na just… complete nonsense.

"But if we dey tok about World War, you sabi, World War Three, I no tink say China or Russia get reason to dey directly involved at all, and even less so, obviously, Europe."

Im believe say China get oda plans for dia diplomacy wit President Trump: "Wen your rival dey make ogbonge strategic blunder, you gatz let dem go and continue like dat," e tok.

E go dey di interest of China not to play diplomatic role, despite say dem dey impacted by di oil prices wey don dey fluctuate?

Maiolo say dat na di small price to pay: "For di bigger hierarchy of strategic interests, di United States wey dey busy for di Middle East, dey more interesting dan China sources of oil."

Di role of leaders

MacMillan say history bin show say pipo dey see war as somtin wey dey triggered by pride, sense of honour, or fear of opponents.

She point out say history also don show say individual leaders of kontris fit shape di way events dey happun.

"Di French Prime Minister, [Georges] Clémenceau, for di First World War tok say to make peace dey hard pass to make war."

According to MacMillan, one argument bin dey - say pipo gatz to make sacrifice, na leaders dey decide say dem gatz "continue to win di war."

She say pride fit be factor for leaders – she use Putin as example: "Im don clearly make ogbonge mistake wen im try to invade Ukraine."

Afta di full-scale invasion for Ukraine four years ago, Putin tok say di goal na to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine, yet Russia say dem neva meet dia military objective for Ukraine yet, she tok.

Di UK Ministry of Defence dey estimate say Russia don suffer 1.25 million casualties overall, wey some pipo tink say no be di real figure - e fit be more - wey dey higher pass all wetin US casualties bin suffer for World War Two, according to di UK armed forces minister.

MacMillan add say leaders wey refuse to admit failure or back down fit make conflict stretch.

She add say for di past, pipo like Adolf Hitler bin continue to fight even wen e dey clear say im dey lose, sake of ideology, pride or delusion.

Such decision fit make small conflicts become devastating wars.

Pathways to de-escalation

To achieve wetin dem dey call de-escalation, diplomacy dey veri important, MacMillan tok: "You gatz know about di oda side… wey you gatz dey in touch wit dem."

She explain say tok-tok bin improve from all di parties for di later stage of di Cold War and wit di involvement of Nato.

"Examples dey plenti to show wia pipo don tok say wait a minute, dis don dey become crazy. Dem understand say e don dey become worse and dem gatz cool down di temperature."

Di existence of nuclear weapons always be consideration for de-escalation policies wen big powers dey involved.

Prof Maiolo bin agree: "Pipo gatz recognise… for Tel Aviv, Washington and Tehran… say dem don reach di limit of wetin dey achievable."

Im explain say more war no go "produce di desired result" for all sides.

"Dem gatz put arrangement about lifting sanctions, some sort of security arrangements, some sort of understanding about Iran place for global politics."

Maiolo say na only tok-tok wit di powers wey dey involved fit cause ceasefire, bifor dem go now convert am to more lasting arrangement.

Dis text dey partially based on one episode of di BBC World Service podcast, Di Global Story.

Edited by Alexandra Fouché