Ubwo ibisasu vya misire vya Irani birashobora gushikira Londres na Paris?

Irani yarageraje kurekurira ibisasu vya misire ku kigo rusangi ca gisirikare ca Amerika n'Ubwongereza kiri ahitwa Diego Garcia mw'Ibahari Indiano.

Ibisasu bibiri vya misire vyararekuwe ku wa gatanu igenekerezo rya 20 Ntwarante (3) 2026 kimwe carakorotse, ikindi naco kirasirwa mu kirere, nk'uko umushikiranganji w'Ubwongereza ajejwe kwivuna abansi John Healey yabivuze.

Diego Garcia iri ku birometero hafi 4000 uvuye muri Iran, iki gitero ca Irani kikaba cateje impungenge ku ntera y'ibisasu vya misire vyayo, bica biteza n'ubwoba ko ubu Irani ishobora kuba yorasa ibisagara bitari bike vyo ku mugabane wa Bulaya, harimwo mbere na Londres, umugwa mukuru w'Ubwongereza.

Gusa gushika ubu haracari amadidane ku bushobozi bwa misire za Irani bwo gushika kure cane. Ariko iki gisasu cakorotse kimaze kugera ku birometero vyababa 3000 uvuye aho carekuriwe.

None Irani yoba iteye ubwoba ku rugero rungana gute?

Ibihugu vy'Uburengero birakurikira inzira za misire

Nta nkeka ko Amerika n'Ubwongereza vyari bifise ibimenyetso nyavyo ko Irani yariko igerageza kurasa Diego Garcia. Vyarakurikiranye ingene ibi bisasu vyariko biguruka.

Ingabo za Amerika zo ku kigo c'ingabo zirwanira mu kirere kiri ahitwa Buckley mu ntara ya Colorado, zishobora kubona igisasu ico ari co cose kivuye muri Irani. Umwaka uheze BBC yahawe uburenganzira budasanzwe bwo gufata amashusho imbere muri ico kigo, aho bashobora gukurikiranira inzira y'igisasu ico ari co cose kirashwe, kw'isi yose.

Bakoresha umugwi w'ibigendajuru biri mu kirere n'ama-radar akomeye cane ari ku butaka – harimwo ayo ku kigo ca RAF Fylingdales mu Bwongereza - ashobora gukurikirana igisasu ca misire kuva aho kirekuriwe gushika aho kirungitswe.

Irani yoba ifise misire zishika kure?

Nubwo Irani itashoboye gushika ku ntego yayo mu kugerageza kurekura iki gisasu, abakeba bayo batahuye ko ata muco uhari ku mugambi wayo wo guhingura misire.

Tehran (ubutegetsi bwa Irani) yarigeze kuvuga ko yo nyene ubwayo yifatiye ingingo yo kutarenza intera y'ibirometero 2000 y'ibisasu vyayo vya misire. Ariko ubu, Israel ivuga ko misire za Irani zifise intera yikuvye kabiri, ni ukuvuga gushika ku birometero 4000. Ibi bisigura ko itoshikira Diego Garcia, co kimwe n'igice kitari gito c'umugabane wa Bulaya.

Nubwo Irani ihakana ivyo ivugwako, imaze igihe izwi ko ifise ibisasu vya misire vyo mu bwoko bwa ballistiques vyo ku ntera ngufi – bishobora gushika ku birometero 3000. Ni na vyo imaze imisi irekurira kuri Israel no ku bihugu bibanyi vyo mu Kigobe.

Imbere y'iyi ntambara, Irani yari izwi ko ifise ububiko bw'ibisasu vya misire zo mu bwoko bwa ballistiques biraswa ku ntera ngufi birenga 2000. Nubwo Amerika na Israel vyamaze igihe birasa ahabitswe ibi bisasu, Irani irabandanya ibirekura.

Ikitazwi neza ni umugambi wa Irani wo guhingura misire za ballistiques ziraswa ku ntera iciriritse (intermediate-range/à portée intermédiaire) – ni ukuvuga ku ntera iri hagati y'ibirometero 3000 na 5500.

Sidharth Kaushal, umushakashatsi ku kigo c'abahinga Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) c'i Londres mu Bwongereza, avuga ko "kuva kera vyari bizwi ko Irani yari ifise umugambi wo guhingura ibisasu vya misire vyo ku ntera iciriritse imbere y'uko iyi ntambara itangura".

Asigura ibi afatiye ku mvo zibiri zishoboka. Ubwa mbere, Irani yotegerezwa kugira misire ziraswa kure mu gihe yoba yipfuza guhingura ikirwanisho ca nikleyeri – ikirego idahengeshanya kwamirira kure nubwo ibihugu vy'Uburengero vyama biyagiriza uwo mugambi. Ubwa kabiri, Irani ikeneye guhingura amarokete ashika kure mu mugambi wayo wo kurungika ibigendajuru mu kirere.

Ni misire nyabaki Irani yarashe kuri Diego Garcia?

Ntibiratomoka neza ubwoko bwa misire zarashwe kuri iki kigo rusangi ca gisirikare ca Amerika n'Ubwongereza kiri mw'Ibahari Indiano.

Kaushal avuga ko zishobora kuba ari izo mu bwoko bwa Khorramshah zo muri Irani – izi na zo zikaba zahinguwe hifashishijwe ubuhinga bwa Korea ya Ruguru.

Izi zifise intera irenga ibirometero 2000 kandi ishobora kwikorera amatoni 1.5 y'ibiturika.

Hagati aho, Kaushal avuga ko "vyoroshe kurenza iyi ntera incuro zibiri mu kuyiremururira ibiturika yokwikorera", nubwo gukora gutyo bishobora kuba vyatumye ata vyononekara ku kigo ca Diego Garcia.

Kaushal avuga ko Irani ishobora kuba iriko ihindura amarokete yo mu mugambi wayo wo kurungika ibigendajuru mu kirere kugira ngo iyakoreshe mu vy'intambara. Ikizwi ni uko Irani yashoboye kurungika ibigendajuru mu kirere, ikoresheje amarokete yo mu bwoko bwa Qaem 100, aya na yo akaba "azwi ko afise ubushobozi bwo gukoreshwa mu kurungika ibigendajuru hamwe no mu vya gisirikare".

Hagati aho, birashoboka ko Irani yoba idafise igitigiri kinini c'ibisasu vyo mu bwoko bwa ballistiques biraswa ku ntera iciriritse canke ku ntera ndende.

Mu mwaka uheze, Amerika na Israel vyarateye ibigo vya misire za ballistiques vya Irani igihe ivyo bihugu vyarondera gusambura umugambi wayo wa nikleyeri. Imwe mu ntego y'ibi bihugu ikaba yari uguhiga akari gasigaye muri uno mugambi.

Kubona Irani yarashe misire zibiri gusa yarekuriye kuri Diego Garcia vyerekana ko ata misire nyinshi ifise ziraswa ku ntera ndende.

Dufashe Londres: Irashobora gushikirwa?

Mu gihe Irani yoramuka ishatse kurasa ku mugabane wa Bulaya, hari ingingo zisanzwe zihari zo guhangana n'aka kaga.

Kuva kera Amerika yamye itewe umutima uhagaze n'akaga gashobora guterwa na misire za ballistiques zova mu karere k'Ubuseruko bwo Hagati.

Kuri Perezida Barack Obama, Amerika yarubatse ikigo c'ubuhinga bwo kwivuna ibisasu vya misire za ballistiques muri Pologne no muri Roumanie – vyompi bikana biri mu runani rwa OTAN/NATO rwo kwivunira umwansi hamwe. Ubu buhinga buzwi nka Aegis Ashore burekura ibisasu vya misire nk'ibiriko bikoreshwa n'igisirikare ca Amerika mu kumanura ibisasu vya misire vya Irani vya ballistiques.

Ubwongereza bufise uburyo buke bwo kwivuna ibisasu vya misire za ballistiques – igihengeri gikomeye mu mwihwezo wa reta uheruka ku bijanye no kwivuna abansi.

Gusa, ubu, aka kaga kaboneka ko gashobora kuba kari kure.

Kaushal avuga ko "bishoboka" ko igisasu ca Irani "coshobora gushika i Londres".

Yabwiye BBC ko intera y'igisasu ca misire iva ku buremere bw'ibiturika cikoreye – uko ukiremururira niko ugiha ubushobozi bwo gushika kure gusumba.

Rero nticari ikintu gitangaje cane kubona Irani mu bisanzwe yoshobora gushikira Ubwongereza kuri misire zayo.

Gusa izi zishobora kuba ari "igitigiri gitoya ca misire za ballistiques zisanzwe mu kirere gicungerewe cane…kandi mu bisanzwe ntizigema neza iyo zirashwe ziva kure".

Umushakashatsi Decker Eveleth wo mu kigo c'ubushakashatsi CNA Corporation gifise icicaro i Washington DC na we nyene abibona uko.

Yabwiye BBC ati: "Hari ibintu vyinshi bitazwi ku kungene zihinguwe".

Yongerako ati "uko igihe c'urugendo kigenda congerekana, ni ko ugenda ugira amakosa menshi mu buryo bwo kukiyobora... igihamana kibi ca misire yawe co guhusha kigenda congerekana".

"Ni vyo ko misire ishobora gushikira Londres", ni ko arangiza avuga, ariko akongerako ati: "Ntishobora gushika neza aho yagenewe".

Eveleth yasozereye ati: "Novuga ko urugero rw'akaga kuri Londres ruri hasi cane".

Justin Crump wo muri kompanyi Sibylline y'igendereza avuga ko icigwa nyamukuru bokura ku gitero cageragejwe ku kigo ca Diego Garcia gishobora kuba kitari ku bushobozi bwa misire, ahubwo ko kiri ku ngabo zizirungika.

Crump yabwiye BBC ati: "Irani iracashoboye gutangaza Amerika na Israel inyuma y'amayinga atari make icucagirwa amabombe. Ubushobozi bw'ingabo zayo bushobora kuba bwaragabanutse, ariko ziracihagazeko".

Anna Lamche yaraterereye kuri iyi nkuru