Uko ibisasu bya Iran byatigishije ahanyuranye ku isi
Mu byumweru bitatu, ingaruka za Operation Epic Fury zirimo kumvikana ku isi
Ibitero byo gusenya misile balistike za Iran, igisirikare no kugerageza gucura ingufu kirimbuzi byateye ingaruka ku mahoro y'akarere n'ubukungu bw'isi.
Nubwo bagabweho ibitero bikomeye, ubutegetsi bwa Iran buracyariho, bukoresha uburyo bushya kandi bukaze.
Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati buri kunyeganyezwa no kutumvikana ku byo Perezida Donald Trump yita "ibitero by'igihe gito".
Ku baturage ba Iran, basabwe na Trump "gufata ubutegetsi bwabo", ibi ni ibihe bigoye cyane.
Iran - ubutegetsi bushikamye mu gace gahungabanye
Iran ifite ingorane zihariya. Ni nini cyane kurusha umuturanyi Iraq na Afghanistan uzishyize hamwe - ibihugu bibiri aho ibitero bya Amerika ybyateye akajagari kandi bikamara imyaka.
Igisirikare cyayo, nka bimwe mu bice bya gahunda ya nikleyeri, biri ahatandukanye mu gihugu, hamwe bihishe munsi y'imisozi.
Abaturage bayo barenga miliyoni 90 baranyuranye - icya kabiri ni aba-Perse andi ni amoko menshi ya banyamucye barimo aba-Kurds, Abarabu, n'Abazerbaijani
Ubutegetsi bwa Kislamu, kuva mu 1979, bushinze imizi, bufite ishingiro mu idini kandi burakomeye.
Nubwo habaye ibitero bine bya Israel kuva muri Mata 2024, na kimwe cya Amerika, gukomera kwabwo kwerekanywe n'uburyo bwabashije guhagarika imyigaragambyo ikomeye ya rubanda.
Intambara yakwiriye vuba vuba n'ahandi mu karere
Icyizere cyahaye inzira ubwoba
Mu bwicanyi ku bigaragambya bwakozwe n'ingabo muri Mutarama(1), Abanya-Iran bumvise Trump abizeza ngo "ubufasha buraje".
Amaherezo buhageze mu mpera za Gashyantare(2), bamwe bagaragaje ibyishimo byinshi. Video zerekanye bamwe mu byishimo kubera urupfu rwa Ali Khamenei.
Ariko uko abasivile bapfa biyongereye, icyizere cyahaye inzira ubwoba. Mu gitero ku ishuri ry'i Minab, aho abantu 160 benshi b'abana bishwe. Mu kindi, abarokotse bashakishaga ababa bagihumeka mu bihomoka by'inzi zashenywe n'igisasu i Tehran.
ONU ivuga ko abantu miliyoni 3.2 bahunze kugeza ubu, ni abanya-Iran - na benshi mu mpunzi za Afghanistan zimaze igihe - bahunze imijyi bajya mu byaro. Mu majyepfo ya Liban, nibura 800,000 bagombye guhunga nyuma y'amategeko ya Israel ngo bagende.
Iyi ntambara ntiyabuze no kubabaza abayitangije. Amerika na Israel bamaze gupfusha abasirikare. Hari n'abasivile bapfuye, barimo icyenda ba Israel ubwo misile balistike ya Iran yagwaga mu mujyi wa Beit Shemesh ku wa 1 Werurwe.
Ingufu za Amerika zageragejwe na drones n'intwaro z'ikoranabuhanga riciriritse
Amerika yamaze amezi itegura intwaro z'igitero gikomeye kuva yatera Iraq mu 2003, harimo amato y'intambara abiri n'umubare munini w'indege.
Israel na Amerika, hagati yabo, bafite intwaro yose muntu azi. Bashobora kurasira kure za misile, bakangiza ubwirinzi bwa Iran. Bashobora no gukomeza na bombe zabo nyinshi cyane.
Minisitiri w'ingabo wa Amerika
Iran ifite 'stock' nini ya misile balistike na drones. Ishobora kuba ikibitse zimwe nyuma y'ibyumweru bibiri igenda ikoresha bicye bicye.
Ariko iracyafite andi makarita yo gukina, nk'uko byabonetse mu gihe ibitero biheruka mu nyanja byakoresheje "ibisasu bitazwi" na drones z'ubwiyahuzi. Ibi bizagorana kubibona no kubisenya kandi bishobora gutinza kurushaho iyi ntambara.
Ibiciro bizamuka biratuma ibihugu bigira icyo bikora
Ingaruka z'iyi ntambara zakoze ku bukungu bw'isi mu buryo bisa n'aho White House itari yiteze.
Umuhora wa Hormuz, inzira ntoya icamo 20% y'ibitoro bigurishwa ku isi, urebye yose yarafunzwe.
Umuyoboro wa Saudia mu Nyanja Itukura, n'inzira ntoya mu kigobe cya Oman iciye muri Emira z'Abarabu, vuba bishobora gufasha gukemura ikibazo. Ariko hagati aho, ibibazo by'ubukene bw'igitoro byatangiye kugera ku isi.
Mu by'ukuri, biragoye kubona igice cy'ubukungu bw'isi kitaragerwaho n'ingaruka z'iyi ntambara, kuva mu by'indege, ubuhinzi, plastike cyangwa ubwikorezi bwose.
Muri Philippines, bamwe mu bakozi barimo gukora iminsi ine mu kugabanya ingendo. Muri Thailand, 'air-conditioners' ziri gukoreshwa kuri 26C mu biro bya leta mu kugabanya umuriro zikoresha. Muri Myanmar, leta yasabye ko imodoka bwite zitagenda buri munsi.
Mu Bwongereza n'Iburayi, leta zavuze ko zizahiga abazamura ibiciro, kuko abacuruza ibitoro baba bashaka kungukira mu bibazo biriho.
Muri Amerika, ibiciro by'ibitoro birimo kuzamuka, nubwo Trump yizeje ko bizamanuka.
Ingendo n'ubukerarugendo byarahungabanye bikomeye, cyane cyane muri Watar na UAE, ahantu hagendwa cyane ku isi. Ikibuga cy'indege cya Dubai, cyakiriye kimwe cya kane cya miliyoni y'abagenzi ku munsi mu 2025, cyarashweho kenshi na drones za Iran.
Ibihumbi mirongo by'abakerarugendo n'abaturage barahunze kuva intambara itangiye.
Mu minsi ya vuba amato y'ibitoro yrashweho na Iran. Imbere y'umuriro wa US na Israel, Iran yahisemo gusubiza mu buryo bworoshye, urebye budahenze ariko buteza ibibazo bikomeye.
Inshuti za Amerika zaratangaye cyane
Iyi ni intambara ibihugu bibiri byonyine byifuje. Minsitiri w'Intebe wa Israel Benjamin Netanyahu, ntahisha ubushake amaranye imyaka bwo gusenya ubutegetsi bwa Iran, abona nk'ikibazo ku kubaho kwa leta y'Abayahudi. Donald Trump we yifuza gusenya burundu ubushake bwa Iran ku ntwaro kirimbuzi.
Gusa mu gihe aba bategetsi bombi bahuje icyifuzo, ntibizwi neza niba bombi baratekereje ku bizakurikira. Bombi ntibasobanuye neza iby'uko abaturage ba Iran bafata ubutegetsi, nyamara akaga iyi ntambara ishobora guteza ntikaboneka nk'ikibazo kuri bombi.
Ku nshuti za Amerika zo mu Kigobe, harimo Arabia Saoudite na UAE, iyi ntambara yarabazonze. Benshi basanzwe barebana Iran ubwoba n’urwikekwe ariko babashije kubana n’uyu muturanyi wabo mu mahoro. Bazi neza ubushobozi bwa Iran bwo guteza isi akaga ariko bahitamo inzira y’ibiganiro aho gukoresha imbaraga. Oman yari izi ko iri hafi kugeza Amerika na Iran ku kumvina ku ngufu za nikleyeri. Amasaha macye mbere y’uko ibitero bitangira, mu muhate ukomeye wo gushaka amahoro, Minisitiri w’ububanyi n’amahanga yagiye kuri televiziyo muri Amerika avuga bari “hafi cyane kumvikana”.
Kure hirya, indi nshuti ya Amerika yisanze mu kubura amahitamo. Minisitiri w'Intebe wa UK Keir Starmer yagowe no kubona aho ahagarara hagati yo kuguma kure y'intambara no kurengera inyungu z'inshuti z'Ubwongereza. No kumenya niba yohereza amato y'intambara gufasha inshuti, Amerika, aho yabisabye.
Mu nshuti za Tehran, Uburusiya bushobora kubabazwa n'akaga Iran yahuye na ko, ariko amaronko buzakura mu kongera kubasha kugurisha ibitoro arakenewe cyane ngo yunganire intambara ihenze burimo muri Ukraine.
Ubushinwa, igihugu kigurira Iran ibitoro byinshi kurusha ibindi, ubu kigomba gushaka ahandi kibivana kandi ku giciro kinini. Beijing ntiyabashije kubuza ibitero ku nshuti yayo y'ingenzi mu bukungu.
Uko abaperezida ba Amerika bagiye basimburana bagiye batekereza kuri Aziya no guhangana n'izamuka rikomeye ry'ubukungu n'imbaraga by'Ubushinwa. Intambara muri Iran irerekana, nanone, ko Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati buzonga Amerika. Mu Ugushyingo(11) Trump yatangaje ko Iran yaciwe intege bikomeye kandi ako karere katakiri ikibazo ukundi.
Yavuze ko "Iminsi Uburasirazuba bwo hagati bwabaye ku isonga mu nkeke z'ububanyi n'amahanga bwa Amerika ubu irangiye."
Niba gusa.
Amakuru
Institute for the Study of War na AEI's Critical Threats Project, Nuclear Threat Initiative, International Atomic Energy Agency, Global Fishing Watch, Bloomberg.
