BBC Storyworks

BBC Storyworks

Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos.
The Disruptors

On the move

By Matthew Wall

How will driverless cars, more ride-sharing and more integrated transport systems alter our journeys?

The way we travel around is going to change radically in the next few decades.

The privately owned car – that romantic emblem of autonomy and freedom – has proved too successful. Our cities and suburbs have become congested and air quality has deteriorated, posing a serious threat to our health.

As Sven Beiker, managing director of consultancy Silicon Valley Mobility, puts it: “Everyone getting in a two-tonne vehicle to go and get a pint of milk is not sustainable anymore.”

As the global population continues to grow and more people coalesce in and around cities, there is an urgent need for a rethink about how we move.

Your browser does not support HTML5 video.

00:00 / 00:00

Advertisement
   seconds

advertisement

advertisement

advertisement

“We think the future is going to be increasingly more autonomous, more electric, more connected and shared,” says Laurens van den Acker, chief designer for French vehicle maker Renault.

Most in the industry would agree, although some would add “more integrated and seamless” to the list, reminding us that cycling and walking are also important ways to get around.

But while autonomous driverless technology and electric power would seem to be key drivers in this essential transformation, there is still fierce debate over how the various modes of transport will be accessed and owned, and how mobility services will be shared between cities and rural areas.

The desired destination may be known, but the way to get there isn’t.

Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos.

Buses on demand

Your browser does not support HTML5 video.

00:00 / 00:00

Advertisement
   seconds

In the canton of Schaffhausen, Switzerland, a small shuttle bus tootles round the beauty spot of Neuhausen am Rheinfall, picking up and dropping off passengers, while negotiating the local traffic.

But this bus has no driver. There isn’t even a steering wheel.

A “customer care” person rides on board to answer passenger questions and to take over using a remote controller, should the bus encounter any difficulties, such as temporary roadworks.

“We want to show the world that autonomous vehicles are already here and that this is not a future project,” explains Peter Schneck, chief executive of Trapeze Switzerland, the bus operator.

“This is disruptive because today there is a blind spot in public transport - the routes from your home to the next largest hub are not public.

“The idea is to strengthen public transport for the first and last mile... so in a smart city you can get rid of your individual car.”

Lots of similar driverless bus and shuttle pod pilots are taking place around the world, from Norway to Spain, the US to the UK, Israel to Singapore.

And Mr Schneck envisages these driverless buses eventually being summoned on demand in rural areas as well as in cities.

“Autonomous vehicles like these – whether public or private - will connect us from our homes to a transport hub,” says Arun Srinivasan, head of mobility solutions for Bosch UK, the German engineering firm that has been making components and software for the automotive industry for decades.

“We see mass public transport as being the backbone of mobility in cities.”

Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos.

Joined-up thinking

One of the frustrations of urban transport systems is the lack of co-ordination between different transport providers. We want to know how to get from A to B as easily as possible, whether that’s on foot, by bicycle, electric scooter, metro, bus, train, hire car or taxi – or a mixture of some or all of those.

In the past we didn’t have enough data to know. Now we do, and we have the connected smartphones to help us visualise it all.

“We envision a world without traffic jams,” says Daniela Gerd tom Markotten, chief executive of Stuttgart-based Moovel, the integrated transport app owned by German car and truck giant Daimler.

“We’re providing a one-stop shop for mobility. You can search, book and pay all in one app.”

Your browser does not support HTML5 video.

00:00 / 00:00

Advertisement
   seconds

The app tells you the quickest way to get to your destination via all the modes of transport that have integrated with Moovel’s open platform, be it electric car, metro, bus or taxi.

Moovel earns a commission from each ticket sale, but there is still a lot of work to be done to encourage mobility providers to integrate their services and eventually move towards real-time data sharing, admits Ms Gerd tom Markotten.

“We want to transform cities by providing the best, most convenient, most sustainable solutions,” she says.

"People won’t need to own a car anymore.”

Rivals include Citymapper, now available in more than 30 cities; Finland’s Whim, an “all-inclusive multimodal transport app”, currently being tested in Helsinki, Birmingham and Antwerp; Kyyti, also from Finland; and DeerTrip in China.

“We have so much more data now about how people are moving around,” says Bosch’s Mr Srinivasan, “so we’ll be able to understand how mobility can be improved.”

Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos.

Scooter kids

More modes of transport are being added to the mix.

Electric scooters – whether sit-on or stand-on - are the latest craze to sweep through California and cities across the globe.

Your browser does not support HTML5 video.

00:00 / 00:00

Advertisement
   seconds

Arielle Smith, a student at University of Southern California (Los Angeles), says the foldable Urb-E sit-on e-scooter she bought has “completely changed my life... it’s so much more convenient. I’ve saved so much time getting from home to class and I don’t turn up all sweaty!”

Start-ups such as bike and scooter companies Lime and Bird have achieved astronomical valuations in just a couple of years, as consumers eagerly embrace the convenience of a simple, on-demand way to complete the first and last mile of their journeys.

And both companies have attracted the attention of ride-hailing app Uber, which has invested in Lime.

Lime co-founder Caen Contee says that his firm is all about “urban empowerment” and integrating with urban transport systems.

With their dockless GPS-enabled e-scooters in Paris and other major cities “you can take them wherever you want and just pay for the time that you’ve used them”.

Found and unlocked by app, the scooters can be left wherever riders want to leave them, as long as they take photos of the location to encourage responsible behaviour.

Two-fifths of all rides start or end at a transport hub, according to Mr Contee, and are less than a mile in distance.

Such on-demand, shareable services could “significantly reduce the amount of vehicles on our streets”, he argues, which would be better for the environment and safety.

"We ultimately believe that the future is electric; we also believe it’s about sharing. We don’t have to have cars that sit idle,” he says.

Echoing the environmental mantra, Peter Lee, chief executive and co-founder of Urb-E, believes e-scooters will encourage more people to use public transport “because they are so portable”.

But not all cities allow them on their pavements or streets – transport regulation is struggling to keep pace with technological innovation.

And it will only take a few cases of irresponsible use leading to accident and injury for there to be a backlash against e-scooters – something Mr Contee is only too aware of, which is why the company puts such emphasis on “respecting the ride”.

Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos.

Curtains for the car?

All this sounds like trouble for the traditional privately-owned car, even if it is electrically powered.

People are buying fewer of them. Engineering firm Bosch believes that the number of new cars being bought globally will level off at around 100 million a year in a few years, as younger people in particular find other ways to get around and keep in touch.

“We’re moving towards a sharing generation,” says Mr Srinivasan. “Why spend on a car that sits there doing nothing for 90% of its time?”

Car sharing has been enjoying double-digit growth in recent years, says consultancy Deloitte. And the global market is forecast to grow from about 19.3 million members in 2017 to nearly 52 million members in 2022, according to research firm Berg Insight.

“The average vehicle occupancy is 1.4 people,” says Silicon Valley Mobility’s Sven Beiker.

“If you could get that up to two people you’d save almost half of all trips.”

And if electric, autonomous cars become simply one of many ways to get from A to B, why will we care which brand it is or how it performs? Traditional car makers could face increased competition from technology companies, such as Uber, Google or Amazon.

The car will cease to be a status symbol and become just an on-demand utility, the argument goes - a significant challenge to car makers who have spent billions of marketing dollars building their brand reputations over decades.

US car giant Ford has already decided to phase out most cars it sells in North America and concentrate on two models only, investing heavily in hybrid-electric engines.

Several manufacturers have also been investing in car-sharing firms – Daimler owns Car2go, while BMW owns DriveNow and ReachNow, and General Motors owns Maven, for example. And the German firms are merging their car-sharing operations in an attempt to achieve scale. 

But car makers are fighting back with futuristic visions of driverless vehicles that we can adapt to our needs, whether that’s sleeping, working, watching a film or listening to music.

In the comfy cocoon of Renault’s driverless concept car the EZ-Ultimo, movable armchair-like seats face each other, while materials such as marble and walnut wood add to the luxurious feel.

“It’s a lounge, an extension of your home,” says Laurens van den Acker, Renault’s chief designer.

Renault says it plans to launch much more utilitarian “robot vehicles” by 2022.

Volvo, too, has developed a concept car – the 360c – which it envisages having the flexibility to be a commuting workhorse, a mobile office, a party space or a sleep pod, depending on your needs.

"We wanted to move beyond driverless cars,” says Marten Levenstam, senior vice president product strategy and business ownership at Volvo, “and initiate a discussion.”

Devotees of a driverless future say automation could reduce congestion and accidents while freeing up our time to spend on more fruitful activities while travelling, whether that’s reading, working, listening to music, sleeping, or chatting to family and friends.

Sorry, your browser doesn't support embedded videos.

Vision versus reality

But let’s not get carried away. Bosch’s Arun Srinivasan says fully autonomous vehicles – whether cars or buses - are “at least 10 years away”.

The fact is that the myriad of sensors that driverless cars need to monitor their surroundings - lidar, radar, video and infrared cameras to name but a few - are not reliable enough yet, particularly in bad weather, he admits.

And crucially, it would be too expensive to include all the back-up devices you’d need should any fail. The industry calls this redundancy, and it adds a layer of cost

“Only a few premium brand cars would be able to have the safest and best sensors,” says Mr Srinivasan.

Then there are all the practical issues around who owns the data they produce and who is liable in an accident.

All this needs to be worked out first, and a sceptical public needs to be persuaded.

But the vision of a fully integrated, sustainable and efficient transport system is gradually coming to fruition. We may soon live in a world where the car has been demoted from its top spot and is just one of many ways to move around.

Share this story

Credits

  • Writer: Matthew Wall
  • Series producers: Philippa Goodrich and Ben King
  • Camera: Fabian Chaundy, Cody Godwin, Laurene Casseville, Chris Fox
  • Production team: Hugh Schofield, David King
  • Designer: Laura Llewellyn
  • Picture credits: BBC, Lime, Urb-E, Renault
  • Editor: Robb Stevenson
  • Commissioning editor: Mary Wilkinson

More from the series

A radical prescription

Could digital technology make doctors of us all?

The new space race

There's a new space race on, but it's between companies not countries

Sky dreamers

Is the future of aviation sky taxis and flying cars?

Copyright © 2019 BBC. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more