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The Disruptors

Making a better future

by Ben King
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How a revolution in our factories could change the world

Robots, artificial intelligence and 3D printing are coming to our factories.

Will the new world they make be a better one?

The things people make, and the way they make them, determine how cities grow and decline, and influence how empires rise and fall. So, any disruption to the world’s factories matters.

And that disruption is surely coming. Factories are being digitised, filled with new sensors and new computers to make them quicker, more flexible, and more efficient.

Robots are breaking free from the cages that surround them, learning new skills, and new ways of working. And 3D printers have long promised a world where you can make anything, anywhere, from a computerised design. That vision is edging closer to reality.

These forces promise cleaner factories, producing better goods at lower prices, personalised to our individual needs and desires. Humans will be spared many of the dirty, repetitive, and dangerous jobs that have long been a feature of factory life.

But manufacturing jobs have always had a political importance beyond their size. They are often among the best-paid, highest-status jobs available to those without university education.

This new technology may well result in fewer jobs overall, and they will be different jobs, mostly with higher skills – fewer machinists and more programmers. And they will be in different places.

One thing is certain – disruption is coming.

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Mass production
with 3d printing

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The US state of Massachusetts has felt the effects of industrial disruption in the past, as textile factories flourished, then went South in search of cheaper labour. But it’s now home to a cluster of companies working on a new industrial revolution.

One such is Desktop Metal, founded by Ric Fulop. He was born in Venezuela, and came to America as a young man, where he started a number of companies, from wireless communications to batteries.

His latest venture is now valued at around $1.5bn (£1.1bn). It aims to make it possible to produce any metal part in hours from a computerised design. 3D printing in metal has been possible for years, of course, but it has been expensive and slow. Desktop Metal plans to make it quicker and cheaper than current production techniques, such as milling or casting.

These metal parts would be the essential building blocks of any of today’s most important machines - cars, washing machines, even aircraft.

The company’s first mass production system, which can make up to 300 tonnes of parts a year, is now being delivered to the first customers.

It builds objects from thin layers of metal powder, stuck together with a glue-like binder which is printed on to it using technology similar to office inkjet printers.

These layers form three-dimensional shapes, which are removed from loose powder, heated to burn off the binder - and become solid metal, strong enough to perform the demanding functions of modern machinery.

To show how this could change the things around us, he holds up a piston head, a vital part of a car engine. From the outside, it looks much like any other piston head – a flat cylinder about 10cm across. But the interior, instead of being solid metal, is a curious network of fibrous-looking elements which looks more like something you’d find in a living creature than an automobile.

It’s designed by artificial intelligence software to be the most efficient shape possible, as strong as a solid part but much lighter, therefore cheaper to make, and allowing the engine to burn less fuel.

“You can now create things that you couldn’t make before. And that’s a game changer,” says Mr Fulop.

Mr Fulop believes 3D printing could change not only what things are made, but where. At the moment, setting up a machine to make a new part is expensive - so companies set up a few big factories, make huge volumes, and ship it around the world.

With 3D printing, he says, the same factory could make jet engines one day, and jewellery the next - you just load a different file into the computer. So a vast range of things could be made locally, rather than transported around the globe.

“3D printing actually could enable localised manufacturing in an interesting way and boost local economies,” says Helena Leurent, who studies the manufacturing industry for the World Economic Forum (WEF) think tank. “So I think that’s particularly interesting.”

Desktop Metal is just one part of a wave of innovation in manufacturing, which is often given the grandiose title of the “fourth industrial revolution”. The first industrial revolution began in the textile factories of Britain and ended up changing almost every aspect of human life.

The second revolution stretched from steel to motor cars, the third brought us computers, and the fourth revolution - comprising 3D printing, robotics, and a host of related technologies - is expected by its cheerleaders to be every bit as significant.

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The factories
of the future

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The Siemens factory in Bad Neustadt, central Germany, resounds to the regular whirring noises of this revolution in full swing.

Its bright, airy halls echo with the sounds of robots making motors for other robots, gyrating in an endless dance in their glass cages.

Parts are sorted and stored in an automated storehouse. Driverless forklifts whoosh up and down the aisles. Finished motors are wrapped by machine.

With more than 30,000 different kinds of motors to make, this factory has to be particularly flexible, so Siemens has made it a showcase for its manufacturing automation technologies - the electronic brains of the factories of the future.

It uses a system called “digital twin” to manage almost every aspect of the factory, from designing parts, figuring out how to build them, to monitoring performance.

Using digital models or “twins” of two robots, they can test how they would work together on a new assembly. A digital twin of a drill bit can shape a block of virtual metal, allowing engineers to find the most efficient way to create a shape, without having to leave their desks.

The factory has to fight for orders and keep costs down to remain competitive - and new efficiencies were becoming difficult to find.

But using digital twin enabled them to shave up to 20% off the cost of making some of their parts, says Siemens’s Peter Zech. And the output of the factory has grown - from 600,000 to 750,000 units per year without expanding the workforce.

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Will the robots take our jobs?

The scale of investment in new industrial robots is impressive - sales have more than doubled in the past five years, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

But the range of tasks robots can accomplish is still limited. They are good at repetitive jobs, and never get bored. So in some factory tasks, such as welding identical car chassis in the exact same way day after day, robots beat humans hands down.

But present them with a messy, disordered world, and they are flummoxed - which limits the tasks they can do in factories.

In a basement in central Tokyo, a tech start-up is trying to fix that. Preferred Networks is applying a species of artificial intelligence called deep learning to teach robots how to deal with disordered objects - or things they have never seen before.

The most eye-catching example of their work is a system where two robots tidy a child’s bedroom.

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It would be an easy task for even a six-year-old human - given the necessary motivation - but tough for robots.

They have to identify every object, crumpled and strewn in random orientations, figure out how to pick them up, and place them in the appropriate bins or boxes.

The robots work slowly and are easily defeated by things they don’t know. They fail to recognise this reporter’s sock, which is larger and more colourful than the socks it has encountered before.

Nonetheless, the company’s founder and chief executive, Toru Nishikawa, hopes to start selling his tidy-up robots within five years.

And the firm’s investors include Fanuc, the Japanese company whose lemon yellow robot arms toil away in many of the world’s most advanced factories.

Fanuc and Preferred Networks have had a research alliance since 2015, applying deep learning technology to the refinement and improvement of Fanuc’s industrial robots.

Elsewhere in the Preferred Networks demonstration room, a Fanuc robot arm scans a basket of goods, figures out how to pick them up, and deposits them in another basket.

It can pick up items it has never seen before, including our cameraman’s smartphone.

In a factory of the future, this technology could sort metal parts for another robot to assemble, or scan and pack groceries at a checkout.

You leave their offices amazed at the things robots can do, but also struck by how far they have yet to develop to match the abilities of humans. If some of the smartest robots in the world are still bamboozled by a colourful sock, perhaps humans do have a future after all.

Last year Elon Musk, struggling with production delays at his Tesla electric car factory in California, admitted that excessive automation had been a mistake.

“Humans are underrated,” tweeted Mr Musk.

Greater efficiency inevitably means fewer people can do the same work. Yet factory bosses in many developed countries are worried about a lack of skilled human workers - and see automation and robots as a solution.

But WEF’s Helena Leurent says this period of rapid change in manufacturing is a fantastic opportunity to make the world a better place.

“Manufacturing is the one system where you have got the biggest source of innovation, the biggest source of economic growth, and the biggest source of great jobs in the past.

“You can see it changing. That’s an opportunity to shape that system differently, and if we can, it will have enormous significance.”

Credits

  • Writer: Ben King
  • Series producers: Philippa Goodrich and Ben King
  • Camera: Ian Cartwright (USA), Hans Schauerte (Germany), Jiro Akiba (Japan)
  • Production team: Kizzy Cox (USA)
  • Designer: Laura Llewellyn
  • Picture credits: BBC, Getty
  • Editor: Robb Stevenson
  • Commissioning editor: Mary Wilkinson

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